Today’s Trivia: Matt Olson finished 8th in the 2021 AL MVP race. Who was the last Athletic to place in the top 10 of the AL MVP race and later play for the Braves? Answer at the bottom…
You know the news by now. Let’s get to it.
But first, the elephant in the room - it’s hard to really analyze the Freddie Freeman side of the decision at this juncture. We have some unnamed source leaks that suggest what the Braves offered Freeman at one point in time, and that may or may not be a reliable reflection on the state of the Freeman negotiations. For me to feel comfortable talking about whether or not Atlanta made a good or bad decision to move on from their negotiations with Freeman, I pretty much need to see what he eventually signs for. I recently tweeted about what that kind of contract should look like, and I more or less landed on somewhere in the 5 year, $165M or 6 year, $185M range. If Freeman manages to wrangle a deal far exceeding those numbers, that matters to this kind of analysis. If he signs for less, that matters too. Another post for another day.
But it’s also nearly impossible to talk about Matt Olson without talking about Freddie Freeman. That’s unfair to Olson, but it’s the nature of this transaction. Atlanta needed to replace Freeman not just on the diamond, but as a presence in the batting order. The Olson trade and the Freeman free agency are inexorably intertwined.
First, let’s concentrate on what we know: Atlanta sent four prospects - C Shea Langeliers, OF Cristian Pache, P Joey Estes, and P Ryan Cusick - to Oakland for All-Star 1B Matt Olson. First, the immediate impacts, using PECOTA’s 2022 projections:
Obviously, Olson helps more for 2022 than the prospects likely would’ve. Here’s a look at the projected starting 9, if PECOTA had its druthers:
Frankly, the outfield remains something of a mess, and you might as well pencil the letters “TBD” into that Drew Waters cell, but I needed something. Maybe that’s Travis Demeritte’s job for the time being. Either way, I wouldn’t think Atlanta is done. Focus more on Olson’s projection and how it compares to other Braves. Our beloved former MVP is projected at .0074 WAR/PA, so Olson isn’t just a “well, we need somebody” flavor of replacement. He’s every bit the difference maker in the lineup that we would expect Freddie Freeman to be, and he’s even great in a lot of the same ways. Freeman has a 142 OPS+ since the start of 2019; Olson’s is 139. Do you like how Freeman is always in the lineup? Olson missed a little time in 2019 with an injury, but otherwise played every game in 2018, 2020, and 156 in 2021. Do you love how Freeman cut his strikeout rate in recent years, striking out in just 15.4% of PA last year? Olson struck out in just 16.8% of his trips, also an absurdly low number. But Freddie plays great defense! Well, so does Olson. At least, based on how little defensive metrics can really tell us about 1B, he seems to. Some think Olson is the superior 1B, and he has two Gold Glove Awards to back up the argument. I (and Statcast’s Outs Above Average) still prefer Freeman in the field, but I’m not concerned Olson will be a liability in any way. He is as good an all-around replacement for Freeman as the Braves were realistically going to find. They’re downright lucky he was even available.
Atlanta has Olson for two seasons of team control. Whether he’ll be signed beyond that is a topic for another day. Many Braves fans are convinced an extension is around the corner. I’m not as sure, but it is something the team will probably discuss with Olson. He’s from the Atlanta suburbs, and he’s still in his pre-free agency years, projected to earn $12M in his second of three arbitration seasons. I hope to look into what an extension might look like in a future post, but for now, let’s just keep it to what the Braves acquired today: two more seasons of an MVP candidate at first.
Prior to the trade, Roster Resource (via Fangraphs) had Orlando Arcia penciled in at 1st. Arcia’s .0014 WAR/PA projection is based mostly on solid up the middle defense. He would likely be the league’s worst 1B. Atlanta has more upgrades to look at, but this was undoubtedly the most important. Even before future moves are accounted for, the Braves now look like a team capable of winning, I’ll say, 87 to 92 games. That’s a start, and in a 12-team playoff format, I wouldn’t expect that kind of team to do much worse than the 1st or 2nd Wild Card. A 5th straight NL East title is very much in play thanks to today’s trade. After a winter of uncertainty, the 2022 Atlanta Braves just got pretty exciting.
That isn’t to say there’s not a bittersweet feeling as well. As good as it is to add Olson and get younger at the position without really sacrificing any quality, it is sad to close the door on Freeman’s remarkable tenure in Atlanta. He’s one of my favorite Braves in my 30+ years as a fan. Retire #5, build a statue, put him in the Braves HOF. He’s an MVP and a World Champion. It’s tough when those eras end. 2,671 days ago, I wrote about the Braves trading Freddie’s early teammate, Jason Heyward, saying “it just sucks”. 7 years and a World Championship later, it still sucks seeing great players walk out the door. And this is the best player to leave Atlanta in a very, very long time.
Speaking of players leaving Atlanta, what of the trade package Oakland received? A lot will be made about the A’s getting players ranked in the top X of Atlanta’s prospect list, but due to graduations and some stagnations near the top, Atlanta’s prospect list isn’t what it was a half decade ago. Not all #8 prospects are the same, so I wouldn’t worry too much about the ranks as much as the players themselves. With that in mind, this seems like a fair return. Baseball Trade Values certainly thinks so:
Those numbers are estimated surplus values for each player. Example: over the next two years, Olson will probably be paid somewhere around $30M, but he’s expected to produce $75M or so in value. Let’s examine each piece.
Shea Langeliers is a very good catching prospect, and it’s not a surprise to see he’s the centerpiece of the deal. That said, I was somewhat happy to see him as that centerpiece, for a simple reason. In recent years, I’ve really started to concern myself less and less with the concept of a “catcher of the future”, as I’m not sure that’s a viable approach to roster decisions. Don’t get me wrong; catching prospects are good to have, and I was happy to have Langeliers in the system. I’m still happy to have Contreras. I’ll be happy to have the next one. But it really seems like catcher prospects tend to be harder to predict a timeline for, even the ones that pan out. Travis d’Arnaud finally became the catcher many envisioned when he was a highly rated prospect - but he did it at age 30. Langeliers might be an All-Star by age 25, like Geovany Soto, or maybe it takes him until his arb or free agency years. This can certainly happen at any position, but I believe it’s more common at backstop, and it makes it hard to rely on and build around their future value. Maybe it’s an erroneous observation, but it’s an observation nonetheless. A good catching prospect is, like I said, good to have, and the A’s now have a good one. But a good catching prospect shouldn’t hold up a trade in the way a similar player at another position might. They’re easier to say goodbye to, because you just don’t know how long it’ll really take them to put it all together.
Cristian Pache is the most recognizable name due to his past prospect status. I’m a little sad to see him go, because selling low is never an ideal path. However, the Braves found an opportunity to use his remaining trade value to acquire a player of considerable value, and there’s a decent chance this is as valuable as he’ll ever be going forward, so it’s hard to hate it. It’s easy to see why Oakland wanted him in this trade. It hasn’t been all that long since he was a highly regarded prospect, and if they could recoup even, say, half of that lost value, they have to consider this a wildly successful trade.
Ryan Cusick, Atlanta’s top draft choice in 2021, debuted at Augusta last summer, striking out 34 batters in 16.1 innings, and his biggest red flag coming into the draft - walks galore - was suddenly less of an issue, as he issued only 4 free passes in those frames. It was a great debut, and now Oakland can decide to develop Cusick as a starter or take the faster, surer route and turn him into a potentially elite relief prospect. He’s useful to have, but flamethrowing minor leaguers can be as hard on their elbows and shoulders as they are on batters.
Joey Estes, a 16th round pick in 2019, had a brilliant breakout last year at Augusta, going 3-6 with a 2.91 ERA, 127 Ks and 29 BBs in 99 IP. Scouts tend to see him as a back end of the rotation type of pitcher, but I’m bullish on those kinds of K-rates for 20 year old pitchers, so I think Oakland might have gotten a pretty good prospect here. He may not be a 100 mph guy like Cusick, but the same general rule applies - even good pitching prospects usually have some sort of performance or injury-related stumbling block somewhere along the way. You don’t want to give these types of players away, but trading them for players like Matt Olson is wholly acceptable.
This isn’t an overwhelming win or loss for the Braves, at least in a vacuum. The organization seems to have given Oakland a prospect package commensurate with Olson’s expected performance level. It hurts to see these talented prospects go, but it would hurt much worse to see Colin Moran or Eric Hosmer playing 1st for the 2022 Braves - and that’s the thing to remember. We will be able to analyze the Freeman decision further, when more details are known, but it’s still no guarantee that he’d have signed with the Braves. The Braves went from a pit of despair at first base to near the top of the mountain. Despite paying full price, that sure feels like a win. Losing Freddie is going to hurt, but this is the least it could possibly hurt, and for that I’m thankful - even if it sucks.
Odds and Ends
I’m excited to look at some other options the Braves might have going forward. I still don’t really know what their payroll is going to be, so I’ll mostly be looking at trade and free agency targets.
As I said above, an Olson extension post will be on the horizon.
Beyond Olson, I hope to look at other extension candidates and what those deals might look like.
I’m hoping to dig into Eno Sarris’s Stuff+, Command+, Location+, and Pitching+. Hoping to work some of that into future posts.
Trivia answer: In 2015, A’s 3B Josh Donaldson placed 8th in the MVP race. He would spend the 2019 season with the Braves, placing 11th in the NL MVP race for his effort.