Designated RHRP Shane Greene for assignment
On May 9, the day the Braves re-signed Shane Greene to a pro-rated 1 year, $1.5M contract, Atlanta relievers had allowed a .780 OPS to right-handed hitters, which landed them 27th in the majors, just ahead of the Phillies, Angels, and Tigers. Since May 9, Braves relievers have improved to a .745 OPS against righty batters, ranking 20th, and in recent weeks Atlanta has boasted one of the better bullpens in the majors.
Unfortunately, Shane Greene had nothing to do with those improvements. Unsigned through the offseason, Greene’s lack of a contract invited wild speculation from the Twitterati - I even saw someone suggest he was looking for a 3 year, $30,000,000 deal. More realistically, he was probably looking for guaranteed money generally in line with what he eventually got from the then-desperate Braves. It doesn’t make sense that Greene would look for that kind of money, and even if he did, it makes even less sense that he’d just abandon those demands in early May. The Braves gave him a roughly fair market deal, and now it’s easy to see why that’s as much as his market could muster.
Projections were bearish on Greene coming into this season. Despite posting a 2.39 ERA over 90.1 innings in 2019-20 and even fooling FIP (3.79), more advanced metrics like Baseball Prospectus’s Deserved Run Average saw a reliever on the precipice of collapse. In 2019, Greene had a 4.46 DRA. In 2020, it grew to 5.16. PECOTA projected Greene to have a 4.59 DRA in 2021, hardly a confidence-inspiring projection. Combine that with a strikeout rate that plummeted from 2019 (25.4%) to 2020 (19.3%), a falling velocity, and the fact Greene was 32, and it’s easy to see why the market responded in kind. It would take a desperate team to guarantee him money instead of a minor league deal. Enter the Braves.
Greene’s likely final season in Atlanta went worse than even the more grounded observers could have expected. Over 17 innings, Greene allowed a .301/.386/.562 line; when you’re turning the average opponent into Freddie Freeman, a DFA will always be over the horizon. To Brian Snitker’s credit, he quickly learned not to trust Greene with important innings - of his 19 appearances, only 3 came in high-leverage moments.
Ultimately, it’s hard to blame the Braves for signing Greene. This team has thrown any right-handed reliever it could find at the wall, hoping something would stick. And luckily, a few have - Edgar Santana and Jesse Chavez have both been relatively nice surprises. The only mistake here was possibly allowing the investment in Greene to buy him more time than the rest of the Ty Tice-flavored wall fodder.
Recalled LHRP A.J. Minter from AAA Gwinnett
Braves fans will no doubt be frustrated to see Minter again, whose mid-summer meltdown earned him a trip to Gwinnett to work things out. Minter got started on mostly the same wavelength as his excellent 2020, and through 17 games boasted a 2.81 ERA and .161/.266/.214 line allowed, striking out 18 of the 65 batters he’d faced. Those 17 games, however, came in Atlanta’s first 34, and an 81 game pace is going to be a difficult ask for a reliever coming off a 60-game season where he pitched 21.2 innings.
Minter collapsed. From May 11 through his demotion, he appeared in 25 of Atlanta’s 58 games, allowing a 6.75 ERA and a .342/.386/.575 line. Some of it was that kind of bad luck that always finds players when things aren’t going well - seemingly every hit found somewhere to fall. Some might have been cumulative overwork. It might have been something on the mechanical side. Whatever the issue was, Minter seems to have found the solution east of I-85. In 7.1 innings for the Stripers, Minter struck out 10, walked 3, and allowed 0 hits. The Braves seem satisfied with the quick fix, and Minter’s now back. Even through all the struggles, Minter still had a DRA 10% better than league average, so there’s every reason to think his Gwinnett turnaround is to be believed. Even if he’s only partially reliable, that’s still an obvious upgrade over the man he’s replacing.
Roster stuff
Designating Greene for assignment brings the 40-man roster tally down to 39, clearing way for Travis d’Arnaud to come off the 60-day IL, presumably Wednesday. That should mean another newsletter on Thursday morning. Huascar Ynoa is around the corner as well, and that would require another 40-man spot to be cleared, making a weak-hitting catcher a prime sacrificial candidate - but which weak-hitting catcher will it be? My guess is Vogt, because he’s looked a lot like Kevan Smith at the plate without any of the success behind it. Then again, Vogt has a better past track record, and he hasn’t been allowed to fail in as large an offensive sample as Smith, so maybe there’s a longer look in store. Either way, it will be very nice to see d’Arnaud in the lineup again.