[tap tap tap]
This thing still on?
Since the last edition of the newsletter, the Braves won the World Series, made some offseason moves, and locked their players out. It was an eventful few months! My schedule allowed for enough time to enjoy the title run, but finding the time to write became more difficult. Now, optimistically, it’s time to resume. Unfortunately, there’s… not much to talk about. I could cover the earlier moves of the winter, but those particular burners of the hot stove are cold as a stone. So, what even prompted me to write again?
I was thinking about Aroldis Chapman. Not as an acquisition target, of course. He’s still very effective, but he’s expensive, a lefty - a bit of a strength for the ATL bullpen, and not least of all, problematic for a team that already has a prominent player with a history of domestic abuse issues. This isn’t really about Aroldis Chapman. But he’s a hard throwing early 30s southpaw who’s very, very good… which, naturally, got me thinking about another early 30s southpaw who’s very, very good, albeit much more affordable and valuable for his team: Tyler Matzek and the suddenly hard-throwing Braves.
2021’s World Champion Braves were their hardest throwing of the Statcast era, with an average fastball velocity of 94.3. All of baseball is throwing harder than it used to, but that FB velo ranked 7th. It seemed to me that this was a relatively new development for the Braves, but I thought it’d be best to check and see, looking at the last ten years:
This table surprised me a bit, but maybe it shouldn’t have. The Braves have been in the top half of the league in fastball velo in 7 of the last 10 years. But, then again, some of those years were during the rebuild, and consider the nature of rebuilds; pitchers skew younger, and young pitchers typically throw harder than old pitchers. As the Braves rose back to contention, and their pitchers relied more on command and control, the rankings dipped. So, why in 2021 did they boom again?
In 2020, the Braves threw 6,029 pitches marked by Statcast as a fastball, about 57% of their total pitches. In 2021, they threw 14,501 (58%), a similar usage rate. But check out the frequencies of slow and fast pitches, arbitrarily defined by me as below 90 mph and above 96 mph, respectively:
The Braves went from having 24.6% of their fastballs sit below 90 in 2020 to only 14.4% in 2021. Meanwhile, they went from 5.5% of fastballs at 96+ to an impressive 16.3%. Both years, roughly 70% of fastballs thrown were between 90 and 96, but the Braves made huge turnarounds at the extremes. Perhaps 96 isn’t extreme enough for you, but as a % of total pitches, the parameters should affect the numbers similarly.
A big part of the equation was giving fewer innings to Josh Tomlin and Shane Greene while giving more to Charlie Morton and Huascar Ynoa. Ynoa threw 102 fastballs clocked at over 98 mph, with Matzek responsible for 74 of his own. And even though he appeared in just 2.1 innings, Spencer Strider added 15 98+ offerings to the balance sheet. Each of those three also topped the 100 mark once this season. Here’s Matzek throwing the fastest pitch of Atlanta’s championship season, a 100.2 mph strike three that managed to catch a little of the plate, something a bit foreign to the batter, Alec Bohm.
Will the Braves throw as hard in 2022?
Many pitchers return from 2021, and aside from a fortunate few, age will likely chip away at some of their velocity totals. That leaves it to the newcomers and youngsters in line to get an increase in playing time. Tucker Davidson (93 mph) was a bit below the team’s average, but that might be due to some difficulty adjusting to MLB’s sticky stuff crackdown. Both Kyles (Wright & Muller) probably don’t move the needle much. Any Spencer Strider time, as you saw above, will push the numbers significantly. The team gets rid of its most serial soft-tosser, Josh Tomlin, as well as below-average velo guys like Drew Smyly, Grant Dayton, Richard Rodriguez, and Jesse Chavez. However, it’s not like they’ve rushed to replace any of these departures with high-velo arrivals. Jay Jackson, acquired in a trade with the Giants, has solid mid-90s velocity, but that’s his secondary pitch; meanwhile, Statcast classifies minor league free agent Darren O’Day’s fastball as a “gentle breeze”.
I don’t know how much the Braves really have in their coffers in terms of player payroll spending power, but it’s reasonable to think they could add another reliever before the season starts. If they’re looking at high velocity guys, they’ll probably want to go with a righty, and there are a few options. Joe Kelly is on the more expensive side of things, not to mention a mustache-twirling villain hated by many Braves fans. Hunter Strickland is a Georgia native with a 95+ fastball and a 97th percentile hard hit rate, and he could be on the more affordable side. Jeurys Familia checks a lot of boxes, but he has Chapman-like domestic abuse baggage; even though both law enforcement and MLB’s investigations cleared him of wrongdoing, it’s still going to be a sensitive topic in Atlanta in 2022, so the Braves may not feel the need to toss any fuel onto that fire. Hansel Robles throws hard, but nobody seems to have a problem hitting it, and Mychal Givens has a lot of things we’re looking for, but he’s been a bit of a mess the last two years with DRAs of 6.12 and 4.73 and a wild streak that would drive Braves fans crazy.
I’ve talked a bit about the Braves adding velocity, but that’s not necessarily a need. This entire piece is really just based on a curiosity. Every team needs some hard throwers, and the Braves have them, but that’s not ALL a team needs. That Atlanta hasn’t added an elite velocity arm this offseason shouldn’t be a concern in and of itself. But the team is coming off what is likely its hardest throwing year in team history, and that coincided with a World Championship. And, as we saw Tyler Matzek mow down Dodgers hitters in what is probably the greatest relief moment in Braves history, that big time velocity was not an insignificant ingredient in the magic of October. Plus, it’s fun. Here’s hoping the Braves can bring the heat again in 2022.
Finishing Thoughts
Since we’re talking velocity, here’s the fastest Braves pitch of the Statcast era, a 104.1 mph smoker from Mauricio Cabrera. The now 28 year old was last seen pitching in the Mexican League last summer for the last-place Guerros de Oaxaca. In 2.2 innings, he had 3 strikeouts… and 6 walks.
There’s a lot of speculation about games missed in 2022. Spring training games almost certainly will be missed, but I’m pretty ok with that. I know I’m probably in the minority, but spring training games haven’t appealed to me in a very long time. They are lies. Aesthetically pleasing lies that are fine to have on the tv for background ambience, but lies nonetheless. If the two sides don’t work anything out by March 1, then I’ll start getting worried. As for the negotiations, I am trying not to follow the details. When a CBA arrives, I’ll read it, but until then, a lot of what is leaked feels intentional and performative - mostly by MLB.
If you want a good chuckle (or a cry), check out Roster Resource’s projected Braves bench on Fangraphs. Just a reminder that there’s still plenty of offseason to go, and it’s going to probably be packed into two very exciting weeks in late February or early March.
Finding time to record a podcast is more difficult than writing, but for those that have asked, Four (!) Flags Flying is not officially canceled. We’re just in a holding pattern for a bit.
Thanks for reading, and the next entry will come along much faster than this one did!