Today’s trivia: Once Kenley Jansen appears in a game, he will be the 5th of the top 6 Curacao-born MLB players by bWAR to play for the Braves. Can you name the other 4?
Signed free agent RHP Kenley Jansen
2022: $16,000,000
*Note - I did not nickname him Kenleyfornia. It’s important you know that.
To some degree, I don’t think the Matt Olson trade really surprised Braves fans. Maybe the timing of it, before Freddie Freeman actually signed, was a stunner, but we all knew Olson was one of the two people most likely to play 1B for the Braves in 2022. Eddie Rosario’s re-signing was similarly expected - Atlanta’s OF options were obviously thin after the DH was added. Collin McHugh also wasn’t terrible shocking.
Kenley Jansen’s 1 year, $16,000,000 deal, on the other hand, was the surprise of the offseason. With as dominant a set of lefties as I’ve seen on one side of the pen and a competent set of righties to round things out, I thought Alex Anthopoulos might do some minor tinkering on par with the Tyler Thornburg signing, but I didn’t expect this. With the expectation they might look for a lottery ticket, the Braves instead behaved as if they had already won.
Per Cot’s Contracts, the Braves now have a 2022 opening day payroll around $170,000,000, give or take a few million here or there in arbitration cases that still need to resolve. Furthermore, the Braves have a Competitive Balance Tax total just under $200 million. If you have never really bothered to learn about the CBT, no one could blame you. Our team has never even sniffed the thing before. Now they’re about $30 million away. I still don’t think they’ll come anywhere close to it, but the fact we even have to be aware is something of a culture shock to Braves fans. The Braves haven’t been poor for many, many years, but they also haven’t operated like one of the rich teams in a while, either. Atlanta currently is projected to have the 9th highest opening day payroll in MLB. If it holds, that’ll be their highest ranking since 2006.
An instant reaction was Liberty Media loosened the purse strings. However, due to the complicated nature of their acquisition of the Braves, most fans don’t realize that Liberty Media doesn’t have its hands on the purse strings at all. I tweeted this link the other day, and if you want a fairly brief, easy to understand synopsis of LM’s relationship with the Braves, check it out:
This money is coming from increased revenue for the Braves not only last year, but an expected revenue increase for 2022. Anthopoulos last year talked about how their budget was set up based on expected revenue, explaining why the team would spend in 2021 rather than focus on recouping losses from the COVID-shortened 2020 season. So, if the Braves are spending more for 2022, they expect to make more in 2022. And Kenley Jansen is our signal that they are expecting a substantial improvement on that front.
As for Jansen, what does he bring? Let’s look at the bullpen before and after. I’ll be using DRA- projections for 2022, with the letters standing for Deserved Run Average. If you’re familiar with FIP, it’s a similar concept, a stat that attempts to take a pitcher’s ERA and strip away the things the pitcher can’t control. It’s set against a league average, which is represented by 100 on the scale. Similarly to the way higher than 100 is good in a stat like OPS+, lower than 100 is good for DRA- (like ERAs). A DRA- of 95 would indicate a pitcher about 5% better than league average. Ok, enough statistical gobbledygook.
Here’s a chart of the bullpen candidates invited to camp who have DRA- projections better than 120. Italicized in grey are non-roster invitees. Players in red font have injuries expected to sideline them for considerable time.
PECOTA projections may be bullish on a few of those non-roster invitees, but they’re by nature riskier bets to make the big league club. Focus on the names in regular black font. And, with the injury to Jay Jackson, who the Braves traded for earlier in the offseason, the right column starts looks scary. As I wrote last time around, McHugh’s ideal use isn’t as a short burst setup guy. That leaves Luke Jackson, who’s probably better than the projection, the inconsistent Jacob Webb, and a whole lot of crossed fingers until Yates and Jackson return to the field.
Jansen significantly improves the calculus. His DRA- projection of 81 doesn’t just top the right side of that column. It’s the best on the entire roster. The 34 year old has spent his entire 12 year career to this point in the employ of the Los Angeles Dodgers, with his 350 saves topping that franchise’s all-time leaderboard and ranking 13th in MLB history. If he picks up 40 saves this year, he’ll tie Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley for what will probably be 8th on the all-time list (Eck is currently 7th, but Craig Kimbrel is only 18 behind him). It’s no stretch to call him one of the best closers of all time.
That said, Jansen is no longer the lights out, best in the game type he used to be. From his 2010 debut through the 2017 season, he had an ERA of 2.08, a FIP of 1.84, 14.0 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9. Since turning 30, he has an ERA of 3.00, a FIP of 3.48, 11.1 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9. Age comes for us all, and Kenley Jansen is no different. But if the worst thing you can say about Jansen in his thirties is that he is no longer in one of the most dominant stretches of relief pitching the game has ever seen, you’re still describing a very useful pitcher. He still converts leads into wins when the 9th inning rolls around. Those 9th innings have gotten a bit more adventurous in recent years, though. Check out these BB/9 rates since turning 30:
2018: 2.1
2019: 2.3
2020: 3.3
2021: 4.7
Jansen doesn’t need to be the control freak he was from 2015-17 (1.2 BB/9), but he needs to at least halt this slide toward wildness, and preferably reverse it just a tad. For Braves fans who kept Pepto Bismol handy for Will Smith’s regular season, there’s a reasonable concern Jansen may require to restock the cabinet in 2022.
Other than the walk rates, he’s still the same reliever as ever. Check out his mostly beautiful Statcast percentile chart from last year:
It’s hard to do much against him when you do make contact, and even his blown saves sometimes seem like flukes. If there’s a game winning hit against him, it usually looks something like this:
Jansen’s approach to batters is pretty easy to sum up: here comes a cutter. Ok, it’s not that exclusive, but against righties, he threw the 93 mph cutter on 62% of pitches. It used to be far more exclusive, topping out at 90% in 2012. It has lost some velocity over the years, but it’s as spinny as ever, breaking away from righties, and they’re mostly helpless against the pitch. They hit .119 against it and whiffed on 42.2% of their swings. It’s number one for a reason. To mix it up, Jansen has recently adopted a 93 mph sinker (23%), which doesn’t have much sink, but it’s a hard pitch he’ll throw inside to keep righties from cheating toward that sweeping cutter. It only exists to help the cutter; in 2018, Jansen threw it just 9.5% of the time, but gave up 9 homers to RHB on his cutter. The more he’s worked the sinker into his repertoire against righties, the more his cutter has returned to its old unhittable status. He’ll also throw his 82 mph slider (16%), which batters either lay off or waste swings on, as they haven’t gotten more than 2 hits off the pitch in a season since 2012.
Against the opposite side, Jansen’s primary is still the cutter, but thrown only 54% of the time. Lefties have a little more success with the pitch coming toward them (only a 17.8% whiff rate), so he needs to mix it up a bit more. Here he still uses the sinker (31%) to achieve this, and this is the pitch that made lefties look silly last year - they hit .081 with a 42.3% whiff rate against it. The slider is about as frequent as to righties, checking in with 15% of pitches, with the same results.
There used to be no strategy against Jansen. Now it’s to be patient, hope he walks a few guys, and then hope you get lucky with a bloop single. As you can see, even a Jansen in decline is still a fantastic addition to a bullpen sorely in need of some right-handed talent.
I will say that there’s one final aspect that perhaps makes Jansen something less than a perfect fit for the Braves, and that’s his requirement to close games. That’s what he’s always done, and incumbent closer Will Smith is reportedly more than fine letting him continue, so that’s not the angle that worries me. It’s just that when you earmark a reliever to be the closer/9th inning tie guy, you can’t use him more flexibly elsewhere. When Will Smith was the closer, Atlanta still had two lefties in AJ Minter and Tyler Matzek they could use in any inning to come in and shut the door. For ideal symmetry, Smith would remain closer and you’d add a second righty to create a similar dynamic from the other side of the mound. I think it’s more important to use pitchers in ways they’re comfortable, and just having talent onhand is the most important thing for a bullpen than necessarily how they’re deployed. Suffice to say, I don’t have a problem signing Jansen or using him in the way the team plans to. I’m only saying that, if I could design a perfect bullpen addition from scratch, it’d probably look more like what we hope Kirby Yates will look like when he’s healthy again. The bottom line is this: Braves needed an impact righty in the bullpen, and they got the biggest impact reliever on the market.
Placed RHP Jay Jackson on the 60-day IL with a right lat strain
I had not heard a whiff of the Jackson injury, which is perhaps why the Jansen signing seemed pretty unexpected. Jackson was Jansenesque last year, striking out 11.6 per 9 and walking 5, and there was an expectation for him to be a big part of this bullpen. While projections may have had him higher, I think he’d have been the #2 RHP in the pen after Luke Jackson. I don’t know what the realistic expectation is for a return from a right lat strain, but the 60-day IL placement tells us it won’t be for a while.
Signed UT Phil Gosselin to a minor league contract with a spring training invite
The former Brave returns to the fold fresh off a 2021 that saw more action than any other season in his MLB career. The career utility man set career highs in plate appearances (373), doubles (14), homers (7), and everything else under the sun for the Angels. It was great for Gosselin, but if you want to know why the Angels can’t get Trout and Ohtani into the playoffs, it’s because they do things like give Phil Gosselin more playing time than any other point in his career.
Atlanta will try to avoid such an ignominious distinction. Gosselin is likely headed to Gwinnett, where he’ll wait for the Braves to require one of his services, which include: making contact, very occasionally hitting it hard, running really really fast, and ranging from bad to kind of ok at virtually every position on the field. He’s Arcia insurance, I would imagine. It’s hard to see both making this roster.
Signed RHP Mike Soroka to a 1 year contract, avoiding arbitration
2022: $2,800,000
There’s more to write on Soroka down the road, I’d imagine, and from a value/contract standpoint, he’s one of the most interesting players on the Braves roster. His on-field future is anyone’s guess, but he has earned at least another chance or two to prove that such a future can exist. This will pay him the same as 2021. 2022 is all about getting healthy, and any on-field success the team gets from Soroka should be treated as icing on the cake.
Signed IF Pat Valaika to a non-guaranteed contract
2022: $775,000
Valaika can compete with Gosselin for utility status. While Gosselin gets the edge at the plate, Valaika gets it in the field. The former Oriole plays all over the diamond, and while he mostly achieves competence there, last year he played really well at 2B. He doesn’t hit much, but you probably could’ve guessed that by his contract. Valaika can be optioned, and unless there’s specific language in his contract that says otherwise, I don’t think he can refuse, so he’s another player likely to be stashed in Gwinnett if he doesn’t earn the final bench spot.
I assume Atlanta will carry 13 position players. Two catchers, Olson, Albies, Swanson, Riley, Ozuna, Duvall, and Rosario are 9. Arcia seems like a good bet for the bench, as does Heredia. With Acuna likely to start on the IL, that increases the chances of Alex Dickerson making the roster. That’s 12, meaning there’ll be one spot left that’s really up for grabs. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the team go in another utility direction, to give more days off here and there. That would explain the influx of utility types, which leads us to…
Signed UT Brock Holt to a minor league deal
As the Brock Star has gotten older, he’s gotten worse at making contact, which is not a good thing when you’re a contact and glove type. The glove is still there, though, and Holt can be deployed all over the field, and he can even serve as a 14th pitcher if the need arises. Of the several players Atlanta signed of this type, Holt is probably the best, thanks to the glove. And the mustache.
Signed RHP Brad Brach to a minor league deal
Do you remember Brad Brach throwing 23.2 innings for the 2018 Braves? You can sure bet he does, because that’s the last time he was any kind of effective at the MLB level. B-Rad (sigh) has gone wild since leaving Atlanta, walking 63 batters in 96.2 big league innings since the start of 2019. Maybe the Braves can help him rediscover his stuff, as this is not the pitch mix pattern of a pitcher who still has his confidence:
Signed RHP Nick Vincent to a minor league deal
Vincent’s nickname is Hubba Hubba, and we really need to stop letting players pick their own nicknames.
If you’re not a fan of Kenley Jansen, Vincent is Jansen’s mirror opposite. He reliably throws strikes, and batters tend to hit those strikes very hard. He’s had MLB success before, so you never know when a 35 year old might strike gold again for a month or two, but that’s probably the upside.
Signed RHP R.J. Alaniz to a minor league deal
The big (6’4”, 230 lbs) 30 year old Texan is overdue for a shot at a major league bullpen. He has 18.1 innings of MLB work between the 2019 and 2021 seasons, but he’s flashed the ability for more at the minor league level, particularly in 2021. Pitching for AAA Louisville, Alaniz posted a 3.46 ERA backed by a 2.77 FIP, with 45 Ks and 17 BBs in 39 innings. Even good bullpens have low leverage relief innings, and Alaniz is a solid candidate to eat some in the first half of 2022, potentially slotting into the Edgar Santana role.
Now, accounting for all these signings (plus the additions of Thomas Burrows and Touki Toussaint, who I forgot, and Tyler Thornburg, only because he’s a signing of note), let’s have a new look at that bullpen chart from earlier, with the injured players removed.
Anthopoulos has given himself options here, and when you can’t lock in a surefire star at every bullpen spot, the more options the better. It’ll be interesting to see how this list winnows over the next couple of weeks.
Odds and Ends
Trivia answer, which I spoiled a few days ago:
Due to all the weekend signings, this has been a long one, so I’ll cut it here. The Braves have optioned some players, and those are worth tracking, but we’ll get to that next time.
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