The roster has been set! We’ll delve into the last few spring moves and take a look at the opening day roster, but first…
Today’s trivia: The last time the Reds faced the Braves on opening day was 2001. Atlanta won, 10-4, and earning the win was reliever Marc Valdes, who threw just two pitches. It was Valdes’ only win with the organization, and the 12th and final win of the Florida Gator’s 6 year big league career. That game featured 5 pinch-hitters. Two were Keith Lockhart and Kurt Abbott, both for Atlanta. The remaining 3 pinch-hitters, two for Cincy and a third for Atlanta, were more interesting. One is now a Hall of Famer, one has won a World Series as a manager, and one is the brother of a Hall of Famer. Can you name these 3 opening day pinch-hitters? Answers at the bottom, now on to the moves…
4/1: Signed RHP R.J. Freure to a minor league contract
Out with the old, in with the new. Atlanta recently released Kenny Wells, a high strikeout minor league reliever who couldn’t throw strikes enough to hang around. Perhaps they regretted this, as they seem to have eagerly replaced Wells with Freure, a 2018 6th rounder out of Canada who, through 169.2 innings since the start of 2019, has given free passes to 123 batters. The 218 Ks through that same span are nice, but he’s going to need to locate the strike zone occasionally if he plans on advancing beyond his current station in High-A Rome.
4/3: Optioned LHP Kyle Muller to AAA Gwinnett
A reasonable decision. Muller has just 18 starts at AAA (84.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 100 Ks, 43 BBs), and he struggled some with control at the MLB level last year, walking 20 in his 36.1 innings. If the Braves see Tucker Davidson as a slightly better bet in the immediate future, the projections tend to agree. We’ll likely see Muller in the bigs again at some point. While I might prefer Bryce Elder be first in line, Muller likely has a higher floor for 2022, so he’s a fine choice.
4/3: Selected the contract of RHP Darren O’Day from AAA Gwinnett
Since throwing 60 innings in 2017, Darren O’Day has thrown 52.1 innings in four seasons. Staying on the field isn’t going to get easier at age 39, but when O’Day is on the mound, he’s typically pretty effective, posting a 2.58 ERA, 66 Ks, and just 21 unintentional free passes in that span.
If you remember what O’Day brought to the table in 2020, not much has changed. He mostly sticks to the combo of his glacial, sinking four seamer and the slider that dives toward the left-handed batters box. There’s also an occasional sinker; if that’s confusing, it’s because his typical four seamer moves like a normal sinker, while O’Day’s version of a sinker looks like it’s trying to burrow into an underground bomb shelter. His pitching focuses on the batter’s eye level - the fastballs will be thrown up, the sliders down. It’s a simple formula, but one that’s worked for him for years. If there’s a point of concern beyond his health, it’s that it’s getting harder for O’Day to fool batters as he gets older:
That’s through 2021, where you can see batters were better than ever at both hitting his strikes and laying off his waste. It’s a small sample - remember, his seasons have almost exclusively been small samples recently - so that could be a false signal. Or it’s something that could be an issue for O’Day going forward.
It’s most likely he’s a short-term fix for a bullpen that is badly in need of some right-handed help. Provided O’Day can stay on the mound, I think he should still be able to provide it. He’s probably the 3rd best RHP in the ‘pen at the moment. With the reality of his shelf life, Atlanta should be actively looking for who’ll take his place, just in case.
4/3: Placed Luke Jackson on the 60 day IL (Torn right UCL)
To make room for O’Day on the full 40-man roster, Jackson was moved to the 60. The torn UCL is a very bad thing, and although Jackson and the Braves are exploring other options, it’s hard to believe he’ll escape the knife. If we see him on a MLB mound before the 2023 All-Star Break, I’ll consider it a lovely surprise. It’s a shame, as Jackson has long been easy to root for. He’s gone from an underappreciated excellent reliever to a terrible one, and then back to an excellent one again. I hate seeing him halted after such a successful 2021.
Jackson has a pending arbitration case, and despite Atlanta’s file and trial policy, it might behoove both parties to work out a two-year deal to allow the Braves and Jackson to both benefit from the likely 12-18 months of rehabilitation that’s on the horizon.
4/3: Placed Ronald Acuna Jr on the 10 day IL (Right ACL tear)
This surprises no one. Acuna expects to be back within a few weeks. It’s unclear if he’ll be brought back to DH before he’s ready for full speed in the OF. Whenever he’s full speed again, it’ll do wonders for Atlanta’s OF defense, which right now looks nice only when standing next to Philadelphia’s.
4/4: Released C Mitch Calandra
A 30th rounder in 2019, Calandra has hit .260/.287/.313 in 136 MiLB plate appearances. That’s not embarrassing, but we know organizational depth when we see it, and when we look at Calandra’s statlines, we see it. If you want to keep up with Calandra, you can check out his podcast, The Arm Barn.
4/5: SS Cam Shepherd retired
A 2019 20th round pick for Tampa Bay, Shepherd didn’t sign and returned for his senior season at UGA. After that 2020 season, he signed as an undrafted FA with his hometown Braves (he’s from nearby Duluth). A glove-first shortstop in college, Shepherd’s bat really struggled in his 2021 professional debut, where he hit .173/.276/.228 with a 24% K-rate at level-A Augusta. I haven’t seen any reasoning given, so all I can do is guess Shepherd gave pro ball a try and decided to pursue other options when it became clear he wasn’t likely on his way to the majors. Best wishes to him in the future.
The Opening Day 28-Man Roster
Atlanta carries a 15-man pitching staff into the season, listed with PECOTA DRA- forecasts, where below 100 is better than league average:
The takeaways here…
Kyle Wright has an ugly projection for a #3, but we’ve also seen what PECOTA hasn’t. He’s tantalized us enough with brilliant starts, and it’s time to ____ or get off the pot. The projection is bearish, and it’s hard to blame it, and maybe we should even know better by now, but I’m going to be optimistic, for no better reason than I just enjoy the optimism more.
That lefty column still looks out of whack, but swap Newk and Matzek and it probably looks right. If you know how projections work, it’s not hard to understand how it arrives at these numbers, but these are unusual players with unusual paths. Can’t blame the projections for missing on them, but it is indeed missing. That said, I am probably more optimistic on Newcomb than most Braves fans. The last time he was given a role and left to it, he excelled in the bullpen in 2019.
I’m bullish on Strider, and I think he could easily outperform that projection.
I don’t know what the Braves see in Thornburg, and I would be delighted to look silly for doubting his role on this roster. But this feels a little Nate Jonesy to me…
The offense (DRC+ is Deserved Runs Created Plus, where above 100 is better than league average):
Thoughts here:
Until Acuna gets back, there’s not really a good option for defensive alignment in the OF. Heredia can’t hit enough to play every day, and Dickerson is probably the best choice for DH.
I don’t know what the batting orders will regularly look like, so I used the last spring training order for now, and it’s a reasonable enough option against righties. Snitker has some options here, and you could see Albies bounce to the top against lefties. That bench isn’t very exciting, but it’ll eventually have Alex Dickerson, which is a big improvement.
The biggest story seems to be William Contreras, who is now getting work all over the diamond. Most prospect watchers are optimistic about the bat, but it really hasn’t translated for me at the MLB level. So, I’m not sure if this is as much about finding a way to get Contreras’s bat in the lineup as it is trying to find some way he can be valuable. A .700 OPS isn’t useful for a player you’re hoping to start regularly, even behind the plate. But a .700 OPS for a player with real defensive versatility, a la Charlie Culberson? You can work with that. There’s some speculation Contreras could DH against lefties. If he’s to do that, he’ll need to drastically improve upon the 41% career K-rate he’s amassed thus far against southpaws in the majors.
All in all, this isn’t a perfect roster, but it’s one without its best player. When Acuna returns, the improvement will ripple throughout the roster (Olson goes from a good best hitter to an elite 2nd best hitter, for example). If Kirby Yates and Jay Jackson can return in mid-summer, the bullpen starts looking very impressive.
The Braves are the NL East favorites, and the path to the playoffs begins today.
Go Braves!
Odds and Ends
Trivia answers:
The future Hall of Famer was Ken Griffey Jr, who struck out looking against Mike Remlinger to end the 7th. He pinch-hit for former Brave Michael Tucker.
The future Hall of Famer’s brother was Wilton Guerrero, brother to Vlad and uncle to Blue Jays star Vlad Jr. He grounded out to Remlinger a few batters before Griffey’s PA in the 7th.
The future World Series winning manager was Braves pinch hitter Dave Martinez. Martinez was officially a pinch hitter in this game, but when Cincinnati changed pitchers, Kurt Abbott replaced him before he got to step into the box. Martinez would OPS .731 for the Braves in 2001, the final of his 16 MLB seasons. Tippy, who played more with the Expos than any other franchise, would eventually lead his old organization to its first World Series championship in 2019.
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