Welcome to the first installment of Brave Moves! Let’s get to it.
ATL: Activated OF Ender Inciarte from the COVID IL
ATL: Designated OF Ender Inciarte for assignment
“When will the Braves finally give up on Ender Inciarte?” It’s been one of the most asked questions among Braves fans since around 2018, when the All-Star and Gold Glover started to become a liability at the plate. It has certainly been a frequent visitor to the mailbag at the Three Flags Flying podcast. It’s easy to see why. Long before Marcell Ozuna tanked his own value with an arrest for aggravated assault and battery, Inciarte’s deal was widely accepted as the worst deal on Atlanta’s roster.
Yes, that says something about Inciarte’s decline, but it also speaks to Atlanta’s diligence in avoiding bad contracts since moving into the contender neighborhood. During the rebuild, the Braves welcomed bad contracts almost overzealously, leveraging the team’s unspent money to get a leg up in other areas, the most famous example being when the team essentially bought Touki Toussaint by agreeing to take Bronson Arroyo’s albatross contract. Atlanta acquired Toussaint from Arizona in June of 2015, establishing a relationship that would benefit the team more significantly six months later.
On December 9, 2015, Atlanta traded Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier to Arizona for 2015 first overall pick Dansby Swanson, heralded pitching prospect Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte. Devotees of analytics immediately saw the move as an incredibly lopsided victory for the Braves. Getting Swanson and Blair alone would’ve been a celebrated move, but to add the 5th place NL Rookie of the Year finisher from 2014, who played elite centerfield defense and had five years of team control remaining, that was the cherry on top. There’s another year and two months of Dansby Swanson’s team control that remains, so while we can take a final look at this trade then, let’s see where things lie, via a WAR tally, using Baseball Reference’s WAR metric:
Arizona received: 3 years of Shelby Miller (-1.1), 6 years of Gabe Speier (-0.3)
Atlanta received: 6 years of Dansby Swanson (7.2), 6 years of Aaron Blair (-1.9), 5 years of Ender Inciarte (9.6)
Those are not yet final tallies of -1.4 for Arizona, and +14.9 for Atlanta. It may not have been the overwhelming victory for the Braves it appeared to be at the time, but that’s not due to Inciarte. Blair was terrible in his short time here, and Swanson, while a valuable piece, has been inconsistent - though there’s still ample time for him to add to his tally. Either way, Inciarte, who won three straight Gold Gloves, played in the 2017 All-Star Game, and hit the first home run at what is now Truist Park, was a wonderful addition.
After a good 2016 season, Atlanta signed Inciarte to a 5 year, $30,525,000 extension, buying out his first two years of free agency (2020 and 2021), and thanks to a club option, potentially securing a third in 2022. Again, this was hailed as an extremely team-friendly deal, one that would easily be worth more than the cost. And yet, it seemed a bit curious for the same front office that traded away five years of Andrelton Simmons, ages 26-30, to lock in five years of Inciarte’s age 26-30 seasons. Both were defensive wunderkinds in their early and mid twenties, and while Inciarte was probably the better hitter to that point, neither had been a star run producer. The Simmons trade hinted that John Coppolella didn’t value defense in the same way WAR metrics might, and yet he invested in and extended Inciarte. Still, it seemed like a pretty nice deal at the time. Now that it has concluded, let’s see how it worked out.
The cost of a win has hovered somewhere between $7,500,000 and $9,000,000 in recent years, so let’s use $8,000,000 for this exercise. Inciarte’s WAR over the course of this deal has been 5.9. If you noticed that he was listed at 9.6 earlier, that’s because it includes only the team control that remained at the time of the trade. You don’t need to be told that Inciarte’s 2020 and 2021, the seasons added by the extension, have been miserable. Still, at $8M a win, that’s $47,200,000 in on-field value he’s provided over the course of the contract, providing the Braves with a surplus of around $16,675,000. Good deal! Right?
Well, not exactly. The Braves already had four of those years, the best four, locked in. The extension wasn’t about those four seasons. It was about Atlanta’s concern that Inciarte would cash in on those four years by leaving via free agency. Again, there were reasons to believe that fear could be logical, but this was a front office that had already signaled that it might believe elite defenders on team-friendly deals were a market inefficiency that the market tended to overrate. In retrospect, the contract doesn’t look like a terrible idea, but a logically inconsistent one that didn’t work out. Here’s how the five years played out sequentially in that $/WAR valuation, compared to Inciarte’s salary (also, I’m pro-rating everything 2020 and including Ender’s 2022 buyout in 2021’s tally):
Year | WAR | Value | Salary | Surplus
2017 | 2.7 | $21,600,000 | $2,075,000 | +$19,525,000
2018 | 3.2 | $25,600,000 | $4,025,000 | +$21,575,000
2019 | 0.5 | $4,000,000 | $5,000,000 | -$1,000,000
2020 | -0.6 | -$1,777,777 | $2,592,593 | -$4,370,370
2021 | 0.1 | $800,000 | $9,025,000 | -$8,225,000
So, due to 2020 and a few other earned contractual bonuses along the way, Inciarte’s extension cost the Braves $26,217,593 (this includes his $3.5M signing bonus) and was worth roughly $50,222,223. The COVID-shortened 2020 season actually improves this surplus, because Inciarte simply didn’t have as much salary for the Braves to waste on a .190/.262/.250 hitter. While a $24M surplus is a nice sum, I again remind you this was all about 2020 and 2021. By signing this extension, the Braves took the decision for 2020 and 2021 out of the hands of the 2019 front office, a front office that assuredly would’ve let Inciarte test the market after a disappointing season.
While I’m showing you some final tallies, Ender technically remains a Brave, as he’s only designated for assignment. There’s a chance some of this math changes, and that’s if the Braves find a willing taker for Ender Inciarte in the coming days. With seven days to trade or release him, the Braves plan to seek a trade, per a tweet from David O’Brien. That’s all well and good, but the Braves can’t realistically hope to get anything in such a deal. Inciarte’s contract has been underwater for years, and according to baseballtradevalues.com, there’s still around $4,300,000 owed him. If the Braves find a trade partner, I expect the team to have to eat most or all of that cash, less the league minimum.
Did the Braves wait too long? Given the paucity of outfield options Atlanta has had this year, probably not. A former star is more likely to recover value than a never-was is to discover it, and the Braves were already on the hook for the money. If there were significantly better options available, I think you would have seen this move earlier. But Ender really wasn’t all that much different than the collection of misfits on minor league deals assembled in the offseason. Considering the Braves employed the exact Ender strategy I argued for in the offseason, it’s hard for me to critique it too much now, even if it didn’t work out all that well.
Still, if this is farewell, I hope Braves fans remember Inciarte more for the fleecing of Dave Stewart and the three really good years that followed, not the final three years of frustration. He’s a Brave I’ll remember fondly.
Also of note: this DFA drops Atlanta’s 40-man roster count to 39.
AAA GWI released DH Jaycob Brugman
The 29 year old former Oakland Athletic signed a minor league deal in December, but undisclosed injuries hampered his time in Gwinnett, as he only got into one game, going 0-3. After he slugged .645 against righties in 2019 in the PCL, I liked the addition of Brugman in the offseason as a break glass in case of emergency option, but it just never came together in a year where the glass was clearly begging to be broken.
AA MIS placed IF Riley Unroe on the 7 day IL
After an abysmal start in AAA, Atlanta re-assigned Unroe to AA in mid-May, where he proceeded to hit .238/.299/.350. After a 2019 that saw the then-23 year old slash .281/.361/.403 across several levels, I had some hope Unroe could be one of those guys that gets a cup of coffee in the majors despite never really gracing any prospect lists. Now 25, with his value in free-fall, his second trip of the year to the IL isn’t an encouraging sign for that possibility.
Promoted SS Riley Delgado from A+ Rome to AA Mississippi
Delgado had shown a knack for getting on-base a little prior to 2021’s resumption of minor league baseball, and you might think this promotion is a sign of continuation, but a quick glance at his .227/.295/.273 line tells another story. He’s spent some time on the IL, so maybe that’s slowed the bat a tad, but the good-gloved 26 year old is likely heading to Mississippi’s bench to help offset the absence of the slightly better Riley.
Promoted RHP Rainiery Rodriguez from FCL Braves to A- Augusta
Rodriguez broke out in 2019 as an 18 year old in the Dominican Summer League, posting a 1.79 ERA across 50.1 innings. This year, in four starts in the Florida Complex League, Rodriguez was 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA, with 17 Ks and 4 BBs in 19 innings. There’s not a lot out there on him, so your best guess is as good or better than mine. Subscribe to David Lee’s newsletter at bravesprospects.com and keep an eye out for Rainiery’s first appearance there.
Quick notes:
The Inciarte talk was a bit longer than what I’d expect to be typical, but he has a relatively interesting transaction past.
I’m not sure to what extent I’ll cover minor league IL trips and promotion/demotions. What I’ve done here is about as in-depth as it’ll ever get. I’m not a scout who watches these games, so I’m just relaying what I can divine from smarter people and the stats.
When Braves transactions are slower, I might occasionally hit historical transactions or look at impacts of moves made elsewhere in MLB.
I’m still not entirely sure how frequently I can write, but I’m optimistic for now.
I’d like to do some kind of mailbag, so with the trade deadline coming up, it seems like a great time for you to send me some trade-related questions or topics. Comment below!
Thanks for reading! If you have any thoughts, I’d love to hear from you. If you liked what you read, please tell someone and help this grow! If you hated what you read, this shall remain a secret, a burden for you alone to carry until the end of your days.
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